An ardent observer, analyst and critic of politics and current happenings. Truly believes in human equality, poor and peasants have first right on resources, and rule of law essential in a democracy.
Here are my reflections and collections. Follow me on Twitter @nharshakumar
The monsoon is central to Indian life and lore. It shapes the fortunes of millions of farmers who rely on the rains to nourish their fields. It governs what you eat.
Climate change is now messing with the monsoon, making seasonal rains more intense and less predictable. Decades of short-sighted government policies are leaving millions of Indians defenseless in the age of climate disruptions, especially the poor.
The lakes that once held the rains in the bursting city of Bangalore are clogged with plastic and sewage.
The rains are more erratic today. Extreme rainfall is more common and more extreme. The number of days with very heavy rains has increased, with longer dry spells in between. Less common are the sure and steady rains that can reliably penetrate the soil. This is ruinous for a country that gets the vast share of its water from the clouds.
Global warming has destroyed the concept of the monsoon.
India’s insurance policy against droughts, the Himalayas, is at risk, too. The majestic mountains are projected to lose a third of their ice by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current pace.
Climate change isn’t the only culprit to blame for India’s water woes. Decades of greed and mismanagement are far more culpable. The lush forests that help to hold the rains continue to be cleared. Developers are given the green light to pave over creeks and lakes. Government subsidies encourage the over-extraction of groundwater. Groundwater is drawn faster than nature can replenish it.
By 2050, the World Bank estimates, erratic rainfall, combined with rising temperatures, stand to “depress the living standards of nearly half the country’s population.”
Since 1950, annual rainfall has declined by 15% in Marathwada. In that same period, cloudbursts have shot up threefold. But during that same period, Marathwada, along with the rest of India, has seen a boom in the production of one of thirstiest crops on earth: sugar cane.
In India, one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, the government subsidizes electricity, encouraging farmers to pump groundwater for their fields, as well as fertilizers, which are used in vast quantities. State-owned banks offer cheap loans, which are sometimes written off.
You have stolen my dreams and my childhood. People are suffering, people are dying, entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you? - Greta Thunberg at the UN on 23-Sep-2019.
This is her best speech. It captures the anxiety of a generation and those living on the front lines of famines, heat waves, droughts, and sea level rise.
They whispered to her, “you cannot withstand the storm”. She whispered back, “I am the storm”! You go girl.
Why is Trump there? He doesn't believe in Climate Change.
On 26-Nov-2018 asked about the findings in a report warning of devastating effects of climate change that unchecked global warming would wreak havoc on the US economy, US President Donald Trump said: "I don't believe it."
I feel no need to meet President Trump. My message to President Trump is just listen to science, and he obviously doesn't do that. - Greta Thunberg
Pro-tip: Yielding to the demands of a catastrophizing 16 year-old who has no experience with unintended consequences is a bad idea. We are not beginning a mass extinction. Both mankind and nature can and will adapt to the modest increases in temps. Don't fall for the drama. - Doug Sheridan
We have taken planet stability for granted and our stable, reliable planet no longer exists. What we do in the next few years, will determine the next few thousand years. - David Attenborough.
She is amazing. The only reason people can make fun of this statement is because they still feel safe and their bellies are full. In about 20 years nothing will be funny anymore. The older people will die but millennial's have the possibility of horror.
Greta has done more in 16 years to raise climate awareness than you or I have in our lifetime.
Rich people will be ok. Poor people will not.
We have to look for a solution, because she is right - people are dying and ultimately the planet will die if we don’t do something fast.
The earth will fix itself by killing off as many humans as it can. That’s the only way balance will be restored.
Everyone, can fight, climate change every day, just by making the right choice of food.
No one is willing to live without modern luxury and necessities to deal with it.
On Nov 30, 2008, the people of Zurich voted, with a large majority (over 75%), in favor of (i) sustainable development, (ii) reduction of energy consumption to 2000 watts per person, (iii) reducing its annual CO2 emissions to one tonne per person by 2050, (iv) promoting renewable energies and energy efficiency, and (v) not renewing its investments in nuclear power plants. As a 2000-watt society, Zurich will be better equipped for times of scarce and expensive energy resources. The idea behind the 2000-watt society is that a lighter life requires less energy is an ecological necessity and can also be a better life. Zurich cannot solve the climate crisis, nor the expected scarcity of oil, nor the uneven distribution of resources worldwide, but it can make its contribution – and in doing so, it will also benefit in its own right.
If the human race continues to consume natural resources, and particularly energy, at the same rate as it does today, we are headed towards drastic climate change.
In the past, it was taken for granted that higher energy consumption brings more prosperity. From 1970 onward, there was growing realization that energy consumption causes ecological and political problems.
We live in a culture of energy wastefulness. We only use a tiny fraction of the energy we consume and the rest disappears as waste heat. By using energy more efficiently, the energy required for each energy service could be reduced by over 80 to 85%.
Below the threshold of 1000 watts per person, people are better off if they can increase their energy consumption. However, once this threshold is reached, more energy does not improve the quality of life.
Consuming more energy would be undesirable, even if the energy could be provided in a completely clean way. It is just that consuming an ever-increasing amount of energy does not make people happier.
Numerous authorities in Switzerland have committed to the goal of the 2000-watt society. Zurich is the first body to lay this down in its municipal code as a binding goal.
Global justice demands sufficiency that offers fair opportunities for all and everyone must also have access to a similar amount of energy. It is not possible for the poor countries to raise their energy consumption to the level of rich countries. If all people consumed as much energy as the rich countries, the worldwide energy consumption would be more than three times as high as it is today.
At present, the average European uses around 6,000 watts, compared to 12,000 watts in the United States, 1,500 watts in China, 900 watts in India and 300 watts in Bangladesh. Today, Zurich consumes around 5,000 watts of primary energy per resident. If the total grey energy is also taken into account, the consumption is considerably higher. The work performed by twenty workers, or three horses, working around the clock, amounts to 2000 watts. Anyone who burns one litre of petrol every six hours consumes 2000 watts.
One tonne of CO2 is produced upon combustion of 300 litres of petrol. This is enough to drive a car 4000 kms. Zurich residents cause 5.5 tonnes of CO2 emissions per person each year. This would be considerably more if the grey emissions are also taken into account.
Today’s material living standard in Switzerland could be maintained with 2000 watts per person if the energy were used more effectively. With consumption of 2000 watts per person, annual CO2 emissions reduction, caused by energy use, to less than one tonne per person is realistic. Also 2000 watts corresponds to the average energy consumption worldwide. According to the IPCC report, worldwide annual greenhouse gas emissions must drop to one tonne per person by 2050, so that climate warming can be limited to two degrees.
Although nuclear power does not directly contribute to climate change, it is not sustainable. It consumes the finite raw material uranium, the extraction of which severely harms the local environment. It leaves behind highly dangerous waste, for the disposal of which, no satisfactory solution has been found. Any accident is a tragedy for the people affected and renders large areas uninhabitable for long periods of time.
Buildings and infrastructures which essentially determine a society’s energy consumption cannot be changed overnight. In view of climate change and dwindling energy reserves, ambitious goals are necessary. The required reduction of CO2 emissions is only realistic in parallel with a significant reduction of energy consumption.
Cost efficiency and energy efficiency are central themes in renovation, conversion and new construction projects.
Switzerland will not result in political, cultural and social factors that determine how it is used. Technological progress is not enough and must not cause us to oversleep and neglect the need for social change.
Mobility is responsible for 18 percent of energy consumption and 37 percent of CO2 emissions in the City of Zurich. However, without mobility, there is no urban life.
The 2000-watt society costs nothing, because all the measures pay for themselves. The 2000-watt society - the idea is that a lighter life has less impact on the environment and is also a better life. It means that we all consume considerably less energy and only cause CO2 emissions at a fraction of today’s level. It also means that with efficient energy use and renewable energies, we can abandon nuclear power, making Zurich environmentally friendly, climate-friendly and very well prepared for a future in which the scarcity of resources will play an increasingly major role. The 2000-watt society requires alongside the political will and also requires more renewable energies, energy-efficient buildings and a city in which people get around very well on foot, by bicycle or with public transport.
Greta Thunberg (left) takes part in a ‘school strike for climate’ at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Swedish school strike activist Ms. Greta Thunberg, 16, demands economists tackle runaway global warming. Her Davos speech here: Our house is on fire. I am here to say, our house is on fire. According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), we are less than 12 years away from not being able to undo our mistakes. In that time, unprecedented changes in all aspects of society need to have taken place, including a reduction of our CO2 emissions by at least 50%. And please note that those numbers do not include the aspect of equity, which is absolutely necessary to make the Paris agreement work on a global scale. Nor does it include tipping points or feedback loops like the extremely powerful methane gas released from the thawing Arctic permafrost. At places like Davos, people like to tell success stories. But their financial success has come with an unthinkable price tag. And on climate change, we have to acknowledge we have failed. All political movements in their present form have done so, and the media has failed to create broad public awareness. But Homo sapiens have not yet failed. Yes, we are failing, but there is still time to turn everything around. We can still fix this. We still have everything in our own hands. But unless we recognise the overall failures of our current systems, we most probably don’t stand a chance. We are facing a disaster of unspoken sufferings for enormous amounts of people. And now is not the time for speaking politely or focusing on what we can or cannot say. Now is the time to speak clearly. Solving the climate crisis is the greatest and most complex challenge that Homo sapiens have ever faced. The main solution, however, is so simple that even a small child can understand it. We have to stop our emissions of greenhouse gases.
Either we do that or we don’t. You say nothing in life is black or white. But that is a lie. A very dangerous lie. Either we prevent 1.5C of warming or we don’t. Either we avoid setting off that irreversible chain reaction beyond human control or we don’t. Either we choose to go on as a civilisation or we don’t. That is as black or white as it gets. There are no grey areas when it comes to survival. We all have a choice. We can create transformational action that will safeguard the living conditions for future generations. Or we can continue with our business as usual and fail. That is up to you and me. Some say we should not engage in activism. Instead we should leave everything to our politicians and just vote for a change instead. But what do we do when there is no political will? What do we do when the politics needed are nowhere in sight? Here in Davos – just like everywhere else – everyone is talking about money. It seems money and growth are our only main concerns. And since the climate crisis has never once been treated as a crisis, people are simply not aware of the full consequences on our everyday life. People are not aware that there is such a thing as a carbon budget, and just how incredibly small that remaining carbon budget is. That needs to change today.
No other current challenge can match the importance of establishing a wide, public awareness and understanding of our rapidly disappearing carbon budget, that should and must become our new global currency and the very heart of our future and present economics. We are at a time in history where everyone with any insight of the climate crisis that threatens our civilisation – and the entire biosphere – must speak out in clear language, no matter how uncomfortable and unprofitable that may be. We must change almost everything in our current societies. The bigger your carbon footprint, the bigger your moral duty. The bigger your platform, the bigger your responsibility. Adults keep saying: “We owe it to the young people to give them hope.” But I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act.
I want you to act as you would in a crisis. I want you to act as if our house is on fire. Because it is.
Greta Thunberg, a Swedish climate activist told world leaders:
'I don't want you to be hopeful, I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day and then I want you to act.' In an impassioned warning to act now on climate change, Thunberg told her audience at Davos: 'Either we choose to go on as a civilisation or we don’t'
GDP is likely to touch 6.75% by the close of this FY. Far behind 8% of 2015-16. Remember GDP growth has nothing to do with well being of common man.
Tax base goes up but tax collections are lower.
Three year low oil price bonanza is over. The benefit was squandered away foolishly by Modi & Jaitley. Any further increase of oil price will not only slow does GDP growth but impacts inflation.
A $20 per barrel increase in oil prices will result in GDP growth slowdown by 1%, and a rise in inflation of 1%.
If high international oil prices persist or elevated stock prices correct sharply, provoking a ‘sudden stall’ in capital flows is likely.
In the medium term, the three areas that would require a policy focus including employment, education, and agriculture.
Further economic reforms like completing banks recapitalization, completing privatization of Air India.
The Sensex has risen 46%, during past 2 years, while economic growth and corporate profits have decelerated. This trend has largely been driven by expectations of a revival in growth and a sudden change in the savings pattern of households after demonetisation. A sharp correction cannot be ruled out in case future growth of the economy and corporate earnings do not remain in line with current expectations and stock markets could trigger "stall" in capital flows and force hikes in interest rates.
Due to climate change, annual agricultural incomes could reduce by 15-18% in irrigated areas and 20-25% in unirrigated areas. Higher investment needs to be made towards expanding irrigation with the implementation of efficient drip and sprinkler technologies. A plan to provide direct income support to farmers can be put in motion to replace inefficient agricultural subsidies.
Although India's unemployment rate is around 3.5%, the unemployment rate in the 15-24 age group stands at 10.5%, as per ILO estimates. India has an abysmally low capacity to provide jobs to first-time workers. The only solution for India is to strengthen its manufacturing sector.
Providing incentives to labour-intensive export sectors will not only provide jobs but also implies higher current account surplus for the economy which can provide a cushion against swings in the global oil prices. Therefore, it would go a long way in reducing India's historical macro-economic vulnerability.
Congress leader Randeep Surjewala said that it has turned out to be much ado without direction, cohesion and vision. Modinomics had decoupled India's robust economy by myopic vision and the double whammy of demonetisation and ill-conceived GST. With one year to go for next general elections, Prime Minister Modi has plunged India's Economy towards despondency, dejection and dire straits.
Senior Congress leader P.Chidambaram said though the survey says growth rate for 2017-18 will be 6.75%, implying a second half growth rate of 7.5%, it offers little evidence in support of this claim. Causing 'agrarian distress' is the designed objective of the Modi government as the agriculture-GDP growth under the Modi government has plunged to just 1.9%, half of what was achieved in the first four years of the UPA. It is obvious that the government hopes that the private sector will come to the rescue of the economy. There is not much gas left in the government.
In a jibe at the government, Mr Rahul Gandhi tweeted, "The Economic Survey 2018 says, 'Acche Din' are here, except for these minor hiccups: Industrial Growth is (down). Agricultural Growth is (down). GDP Growth is (down) and Job Growth is (down). Don't worry Be Happy!" He also tagged a video of the song "Don't worry be happy" with the tweet.
Modi is in a fiscal bind. Revenue collection remains under pressure following the chaotic roll-out of a GST, and with an eye on next year's election, his spending priorities may turn to the distressed rural sector, putting pressure on the budget deficit. Even though government committed 3.2% budget deficit for this year analysts expect this at 3.5% this year and and 3.2% next year.
Economic upturn is defined as higher GDP growth over three consecutive quarters. Not every uptick which Modi's team bombard incessantly in media and social media. All these economic data doesn't mean anything really. Go to a village and talk to them or meet some frustrated unemployed youngsters in every street corner in the evenings and you will realize state of economy. Nearly 10% of voters for 2019 elections are first time voters in age band of 18-25 educated and/or skilled joined workforcebut unemployed who have no knowledge of history or politics or bothered about GDP growth or corruption. Most of them are engaged in subsistence activities and are thoroughly frustrated. They would teach lesson to Modi and BJP in 2019 general elections. The man who could not do any thing with Rs.4-5 lakh crores of oil bonanza money in 3 years except resorting to wild gambling what can he do now with no money, non performing economy and almost all sectors in distress. Corruption is not the only high priority item in our country. The priority items are healthcare, education, unemployment, agrarian distress, and many more after which corruption control and bullet train comes. Unfortunately for our flamboyant PM style, spectacle and display alone matters and nothing else. Modi has made a hash of anything and everything. The worst PM ever in history of India. The only way to show performance is to create wrong data and that is what exactly he and his gang are doing.
About 21,000 people die every day of hunger or hunger-related causes, according to the United Nations. This is one person every four seconds. Sadly, it is children who die most often.
Yet there is plenty of food in the world for everyone. The problem is that hungry people are trapped in severe poverty. They lack the money to buy enough food to nourish themselves. Being constantly malnourished, they become weaker and often sick. This makes them increasingly less able to work, which then makes them even poorer and hungrier. This downward spiral often continues until death for them and their families.
UN promoted “Food for work” programs where the adults are paid with food to build schools, dig wells, make roads, and so on. This both nourishes them and builds infrastructure to end the poverty. For children, there are “food for education” programs where the children are provided with food when they attend school. Their education will help them to escape from hunger and global poverty.
Poverty is defined as per capita daily spend of less than $16 in USA. For India it is less than $1.25, as defined by world bank.
Over the past three decades, China has successfully led the greatest poverty alleviation program in the history of the world. During that time, an estimated 500 million Chinese were lifted out of extreme poverty. This remarkable success was achieved, in part, through the recognition of land rights. It was Mao’s disastrous collectivization of farmland into huge communes that led to China’s greatest famine. And it was Deng Xiao Ping’s dismantling of the communes and establishment of the household responsibility system that led to China’s first great lurch toward prosperity and stability. An estimated 88 million farming families have gained legally secure land tenure. Consistent GDP growth of over 10% for a decade is another contributing factor.
A vast majority of the global poor live in rural areas and are poorly educated, mostly employed in the agricultural sector, and over half are under 18 years of age.
Access to good schools, healthcare, electricity, safe water and other critical services remains elusive for many people, often determined by socioeconomic status, gender, ethnicity, and geography.
Poverty in the abstract doesn’t challenge us, it makes us think, lament, but when you see poverty in the flesh of a man, woman or child, this challenges us. The attitude we have is running away from the needy and not drawing near to them.
After 2030, negative impacts of climate changes could threaten farming and food systems in every region of the world. Agriculture has always been the interface between natural resources and human activity. Today it holds the key to solving the two greatest challenges facing humanity: eradicating poverty, and maintaining the stable climatic corridor in which civilisation can thrive.
In USA, approximately 50 million Americans (one out of six) were listed as food insecure (defined as people who either do not have enough or are at real risk for not having enough food for their family). This despite the fact that America looses/wastes almost 100 billion pounds of food a year, or about one pound per person per day.
In the emerging economies, however, progress continues to elude a large number of people living in extreme poverty.
35% of Indians are below official poverty line.
Poverty in India:
India spends only 1% of its GDP on health (3-4% is considered bare essential).
70% population live in villages.
50% of Indians don’t have proper shelter.
70% don’t have access to decent toilets.
35% of households don’t have a nearby water source.
85% of villages don’t have a secondary school.
Over 40% of these same villages don’t have proper roads connecting them.
Urban poverty in India is a direct effect of rural migrations fleeing poverty.
Unlike China, India neglected improving agriculture productivity which could have alleviated rural poverty.
With so much emphasis on service sector, the jobs created in that sector were just 2 million despite its contribution to GDP at 50%. This resulted in complaints that globalization and modernization benefited only the rich.
India's globalization has just left its rural poor on their own without any social safety nets.
India's market liberalization resulted in market forces investing in profitable areas leaving plenty excluded.
Burden of Poverty:
Poverty is broadly the gap between one’s needs and the resources available to fulfill them. That is, people in poverty are those who feel “poor,” who feel they have less than they need.
Social and economic resources shape the health of individuals and populations.
Lacking money or time can lead one to make poorer decisions, possibly because poverty imposes a cognitive load that saps attention and reduces effort.
The poor often behave in less capable ways, which can further perpetuate poverty.
Poverty, and its related concerns, places an undue burden on an individual’s limited mental resources, leaving less for other tasks.
Poor are less capable not because of inherent traits, but because the very context of poverty imposes load and impedes cognitive capacity.
"In a country well governed, poverty is something to be ashamed of.
In a country badly governed, wealth is something to be ashamed of." - Confucius
My View: Poverty is just a matter of bad luck. It is like a man fallen into a ditch. Unless external help is extended he can't over come it. It is the primary duty of every government, organisation and every human being to help poor people over come it. Hatred towards poor is not only uncivil but also despicable.Poverty unattended will surely breed undesirable violence, crime and diseases. In the words of John F. Kennedy"If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich.".
