Mockery of Exit Polls

Almost all exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Some pollsters such as News24-Today’s Chanakya and Aaj Tak-AxisMyIndia predicted the BJP’s win to be bigger than even the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Only ABP-Nielsen has predicted the BJP to fall short of majority.

Stock market operators are paying TV channels to produce exit polls that will move the market in the days between the exit polls and the actual results and then move the market rapidly in a different direction once results are out. So whatever the exit polls say take them with a pinch of salt - people have advised.

Within 60 seconds, Rs 3.2 lakh crore were added to investor kitty as exit polls see NDA win. The highly exaggerated Exit Polls have become another tool to make money and the rich are getting richer at the expense of the gullible small investors.

ABP giving 56 seats to MGB in UP, India today giving 65 seats to BJP in UP. This is the conclusion of Exit polls!

The BJP-JDU alliance is set to sweep the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar winning minimum 38 out of the 40 seats, according to the India Today-My Axis India Exit Poll. The RJD-Congress led 'Mahagathbandhan' may only bag maximum 2 seats, as per the exit polls. Is it believable?

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has made a stunning allegation against TV channels’ who broadcast their exit poll predictions on Sunday evening. She said that predictions favouring the BJP was a part of a larger ‘game plan’ to ‘manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip.’

Telegu Desam Party chief N Chandrababu Naidu dismissed the predictions of the exit polls, pointing out that past experience show such analysis usually turn out wrong. "Time and again exit polls have failed to catch the people's pulse. Exit polls have provIndia ed to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances..." Mr Naidu tweeted.

Last week, Arnab Goswami had slammed his rival TV channels particularly India Today for ‘leaking’ their exit poll data that gave the NDA only 177 seats, a loss of 177 seats compared to 2014, they claimed. Faced with widespread condemnation, India Today had later clarified that numbers flashed on its channel were part of the channel’s dummy data.

"I believe the exit polls are all wrong. In Australia last weekend, 56 different exit polls proved wrong. In India many people don't tell pollsters the truth fearing they might be from the Government. Will wait till 23rd for the real results," tweeted the Congress parliamentarian Mr Shashi Tharoor. He was referring to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison winning what was seen as an unwinnable election, cementing his authority over the Liberal Party and giving him the muscle to end a decade of instability that has seen a revolving door of prime ministers.

National Conference chief Omar Abdullah tweeted "Every single exit poll can’t be wrong! Time to switch off the TV, log out of social media & wait to see if the world is still spinning on its axis on the 23rd". His tweet that did not outright cast doubts on the exit polls that is likely to be seen as a harbinger of the actual results.

Basis Exit Polls, shares of Adani Group companies have shot through the roof:
    Adani Green Energy: 17%
    Adani Gas: 16%  
    Adani Power: 14%
    Adani Transmission: 9% 
    Adani Ports & SEZ: 8%
    Adani Enterprises: 15%

There is no advantage of conducting Exit Polls!  It creates unwanted anxiety to people and politicians. Only TV channels make money.


Many political analysts see opinion polls as an evil in democracy. Opinion polls have bandwagon effect on the fair election process. Opinion polls project what voters are thinking and what their mandate will be. It doesn't direct the voters to go for the majority view or to neglect the minority. Opinion polls are accused of being manipulated and sometimes being wrong. Opinion polls can be manipulated by arranging favorable questions. It is not the duty of the media to keep the moral of the party cadres high. Media is accountable to the people not to the political parties. Indian citizen has the right to freedom of speech and expression and ban on the opinion polls will curtail this right. So argument against opinion polls holds no moral ground. In a country like ours, opinion polls and exit polls are much needed to enrich our healthy democracy. But yesterday's exit polls seems to have been manipulated by ruling BJP in order to keep UPA and allies in disarray so that in case of any marginal opportunity they could knock away the chance to form government with the help of President Kovind.

Rs.50,000 crores coal import scam

During the last four years, the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, or DRI, has unearthed over-invoicing of imports of coal and electricity generation equipment against at least 40 of India’s biggest energy companies. The total scandal amount is Rs 50,000 crore (~$8bn). Of this Rs 30,000 crore is on account of the over-invoicing of coal imported mainly from Indonesia. The remaining Rs. 20,000 crore is due to over-invoicing of power machinery imported mostly from China. The higher costs were passed on to consumers, who paid more for electricity.

• NTPC and various state electricity boards are involved in the over-invoicing scam, along with private companies of Adani, Essar, Anil Ambani etc. 
• As claims of corruption and favouritism emerge involving corporate entities headed by politically influential tycoons and powerful technocrats, the finance ministry's pursuing these cases are being stymied and the prosecution process thwarted.
• The DRI investigation alleged that 40 major companies, including Knowledge Infrastructure Systems Private Limited (KISPL), had inflated the value of coal imported from Indonesia for power generation, resulting in illicit benefits of Rs 30,000 crore. This resulted in consumers having to pay more for electricity. 
• The DRI investigation further claimed that the illegal gains were then laundered through shell companies in tax havens outside India.
• The adjudicating authority of the DRI, has cleared two companies, both part of the Adani Group, of charges of over-invoicing imported power-plant equipment worth Rs 3,974 crore. The investigating agency, DRI, filed an appeal in which it argued that the order suffers from “total non-application of mind or recklessness.”   DRI further stated that the order was “erroneous, illegal and improper not only in law but also on facts.” 
• The adjudicating authority of the DRI has accepted allegations against KISPL regarding over-valuation of coal imports from Indonesia and imposed a penalty of Rs 17.50 crore on the company. It also imposed a penalty of Rs 1.25 crore on Rahul Bhandare, the managing director of the company, and another of Rs 25 lakh on Vipin Mahajan, a former employee of NTPC, who is currently a director of the company. In both cases identical modus operandi was deployed for the over-invoicing and laundering process.
• In the KISPL appeal, a series of procedural irregularities have raised doubts about the integrity of CJ Mathew, the technical member on the bench hearing the KISPL case. The agency claimed that Mathew’s conduct “has been far from fair and impartial.” 
• An adverse ruling by the Customs, Excise and Service Tax Appellate Tribunal (CESTAT) in favor of KISPL, would set a precedent that could absolve the larger companies, both government-owned and those in the private sector, of the charges of fleecing the exchequer, and ultimately, the public. 
• The coal was shipped from Indonesian ports, whereas KISPL submitted invoices issued by firms such as Knowledge International Strategy Systems Pte, Singapore and Springs Trader Ltd, Hong Kong. KISPL supplied the imported coal to thermal power stations of the  Mahagenco. The DRI investigation claimed that the Singapore company was a “wholly owned subsidiary” of KISPL
• The Singapore company had created false documents to show that it had imported higher grades of coal. The amounts generated on account of the difference in prices were routed through a shell company based in Hong Kong. 
• The willingness of the finance ministry to fight the case against KISPL and similar cases relating to the over-invoicing of imported coal and power equipment will be tested in the future. It is worth repeating that huge sums of public money worth Rs 50,000 crore are involved.

Read the source article

Eventhough Modi talked very high about corruption of Congress & UPA and his intent to fight out, during the 2013 campaign and on every public platform, the truth is that he himself is a worst corrupt politician, as reflected by CAG reports during his Gujarat CM tenure. But most Indians doesn't know his Gujarat CM episodes. His lifestyle as PM of India, doesn't make anyone believe that he is simple & honest. His spectacles are estimated to cost over Rs.2 lakhs and changes dress at least 5 times in a day. During his Prime Ministership of last 4 years, hardly any big-shot worthwhile had been booked for corrupt practices, save some hardcore political opponents. In the last year of his five year rule, he is saddled with overall under-performance and very poor financial performance, much can't be expected from him in this regard. Modi is likely to allow almost all ongoing cases disposed off relieving tainted personalities in exchange for election fund favors. Needless to say that BJP's election campaign expenses, during the last 5 years, are unimaginably higher in the country.

How cronyism dictates Modi’s India

Gautam Adani & Narendra Modi

• Strategic litigations are being used by big corporates to curb free speech and discourage high-quality investigative journalism.
• While Prime Minister Narendra Modi claims that there’s not a single stain of corruption on his three-year tenure in the Centre, a barrage of attacks on media, creeping self-censorship and a belligerent government clamping down on those trying to do their job well and ask critical, uncomfortable questions about the state of the political economy.
• With 58% of India’s wealth owned by the top 1% of population, crony capitalism is thriving and under this government's regime. Despite PM Modi’s hard talk against corruption and claims of ending it altogether, there exists a concerted attempt to delete every mention of such collusions.
• The "collusions" of the alleged Modi-Adani nexus, whether in terms of bending of rules pertaining to special economic zones as to benefit the Adani Group per se, or helping the businessman deal with black money, give him undue loans from public sector banks on overseas projects that had run into troubles with local authorities there.
• It was SBI trying to extend a line of credit worth $ one billion to Adani Group for the Carmichael coal mining project in Australia, or helping the billionaire from Gujarat engage in "riskless capitalism" by tweaking SEZ rules, laying waste to India's environment, or saving Adani from green penalties, the collusion has been happening right before our eyes. 
• Of course, Gautam Adani* had reportedly poured money into Narendra Modi's Lok Sabha election campaign in 2013-14, making it the costliest ever in the history of India. The Gujarat-based businessman's proximity to the prime minister was flaunted in the politician flying all over India in Adani's private planes and choppers.
  *Adani is a college dropout, who spurned his father's textile shop to set up a commodities export firm in 1988. He survived the terrorist attack in Mumbai's Taj Mahal Palace Hotel in 2008.
• Adani Group allegedly took out over Rs 5,000 crore to tax havens abroad, using inflated bills for the import of power equipment from South Korea and China, and the SIT on black money was told by the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED).
• Despite his anti-black money bluster, one of the biggest black money cases before the retired Supreme Court judge-led Special Investigation Team - a decision taken by PM Modi himself in the initial days of his taking office - has been that of the Adani Group of Industries. 
• What has happened to that investigation? No clue. Brutal clampdown on any mention of the alleged Modi-Adani nexus, strangling free press by using what in legal jargon has come to be known as a "SLAPP", or strategic litigation to avoid public participation.  
• Press freedom in India ranks at a dismal number 138.

Read the source article

Modi’s own record of ‘Raincoat Bathing’

• Narendra Modi is truly a street-smart politician. His ‘rain coat in a shower’ metaphor for Manmohan Singh is accurate description of Manmohan Singh’s ten-year long prime ministership. He allowed scams like 2G spectrum, coal block allocations and the Commonwealth Games loot to happen right under his nose without any direct charge of personal corruption sticking to him. His staunchest critics could not call him a corrupt prime minister. 
• Congressmen failed to point out how Modi himself has been a master at the art of being seen as clean, like a lotus, while remaining immersed neck deep in muck. 
• For 14 years Modi as Gujarat chief minister held the home portfolio. While his deputy minister of state for home, Amit Shah, was arrested, jailed and then externed for a spate of extra-judicial killings, the chain of evidence never travelled beyond Shah. As Shah and his loyalist police officers did time in jail, Modi reaped a rich political harvest by polarising society using these killings. His other ministerial colleague Mayaben Kodnani was sentenced to 28 years in prison for the Naroda Patiya massacre. 
• Babu Bajrangi, who killed women and children in Patiya and later, after being released on bail, ruled the streets of Ahmedabad for several years, kidnapping girls, blocking the release of films and terrorising minorities, all along openly flaunted his proximity with the chief minister. In 2012, he was convicted and sentenced to life based on eye-witness accounts and his own confession on a spy-camera, but his statement indicting Modi was dismissed as hearsay. 
• As chief minister, Modi presided over the killings of more than 1,000 men and women, and yet used every repudiation whether from within the party or without, every judicial stricture, every effort to inquire into his culpability, to further cement his stay in power.
• When it comes to the art of enjoying a shower without getting wet, Narendra Modi is many shades better than Manmohan Singh.
• CAG reports on the 2G spectrum, coal blocks and Krishna Godavari Basin singed Singh, politically and personally. But CAG reports on the scams of the Modi government in Gujarat faded without a whimper.
• In 2012, the Modi government earned strictures from the CAG for giving away a 10% participating stake in a KG Basin gas field measuring 4,57,000 acres it had won in an expensive bid to a mysterious overseas company named GeoGlobal Resources, incorporated in Barbados, with a capital of just $64, for free. As per the Modi government’s own estimates, announced in a press conference, the gas field was worth about $20 billion. Though state government-run GSPC, the owner of the gas field, had spent in excess of Rs 20,000 crore in drilling and exploration costs, Geo Global’s share of Rs 20,000 crore towards expenditure cost was also borne by GSPC. The issue failed to get the attention of the national media as Modi was on the ascendance and the corporate media owners could see which way the wind was blowing. Arvind Kejriwal’s hour-long press conference on the issue was blacked out. Till date there has been no inquiry into this shady deal nor any investigation into the real operators behind Geo Global, which was incorporated just six days before the joint venture with the GSPC. A new CAG report last year indicted Modi’s Gujarat government for wasting Rs 20,000 crore of public money in an exploration process which has yielded one-tenth of what he had promised.
• Just weeks after Modi’s inauguration as prime minister, the CAG released five different reports for the year ending March 2013, highlighting financial irregularities by the Modi-led Gujarat government amounting to more than Rs 25,000 crore, which included Rs 1,500 crore in undue benefits to companies like including Reliance Petroleum, Essar Power and the Adani Group.
• Modi as Gujarat chief minister gave away about 16,000 acres of land to Adani SEZ for rates between Rs 1 and Rs 32 per square metre. Other companies like Bharat Hotels, Larson & Toubro, Essar Steel and real estate developer K. Raheja also got large parcels of prime land for a fraction of market price. It had all the hallmark of crony capitalism: arbitrariness, private gains at the cost of the exchequer and proximity between beneficiaries and the chief minister. 
• When the opposition’s demand for a probe into land deals reached a crescendo, in 2011, chief minister Modi appointed an inquiry commission under a retired judge, a time-tested technique of deflection and obfuscation. The report of the commission was never made public and with neither media nor courts interested in holding him accountable, the Gujarat government had little incentive to release the report. Modi’s proverbial raincoat remained intact.
• For 13 years, chief minister Modi didn’t appoint a lokayukta in Gujarat. His government spent Rs 45 crore of taxpayer’s money in litigation blocking the appointment of retired justice R.A. Mehta, widely regarded as honest and competent, as lokayukta. For the last three years, Modi has not appointed a lokpal. Yet he projects himself from every pulpit as a warrior against black money.
• Between 2004 and 2015, the BJP has shown more than three-quarters of its funds as cash received from unnamed sources. The same funds catapulted Modi to prime ministership. Yet he has been drumming about the virtues of a cashless economy.
• As Modi’s march to Delhi was gaining pace, the UPA in a rearguard attack launched a probe into the business affairs of Gautam Adani, Modi’s principal backer. A probe by the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) nailed the siphoning off of hundreds of crores abroad by the Adani Group by an intricate conspiracy involving over-valuation in imports for projects subject to a low or nil rate of customs duty. The report was finalised days before the results of Lok Sabha elections were due. Seeing the body of evidence against Adani, the UPA quickly moved to hand over the case to the CBI. For two years, the CBI, which reports to the prime minister’s office, is sitting tight on the file.
• In July last year another, the DRI probe revealed that 40 of the country’s biggest energy companies, including Adani and the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group, were prima facie found involved in over-invoicing of imported coal. The scam was conservatively estimated at Rs 29,000 crore, with the common power consumers bearing the brunt of the inflated power bills, a direct effect of over-invoicing. Modi goes on publicly embracing both Adani and Anil Ambani. 
• The UPA was shamed into removing Ashok Chavan after the Adarsh Scam, Suresh Kalmadi after the CWG scam, A. Raja after the spectrum scam, Pawan Kumar Bansal after a bribery scam and Ashwani Kumar after the coal scam status report scandal. No such scruples bother Modi. After more than 40 suspected killings connected with the admission and recruitment scam called ‘Vyapam’ which happened on Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s watch, Modi has not said a word about the propriety of a tainted chief minister continuing in office. 
• Public outrage after Vasundhra Raje and her family were found to be mixed up with fugitive Lalit Modi failed to evoke a response from Modi. Addressing an election gathering in March 2014 in Chandigarh, then prime minister-designate Modi blasted the Congress for giving a ticket to the tainted Bansal. 
• On his watch, Modi’s alter ego Shah appointed tainted B.S. Yeddyurappa, who presided over many scams including the infamous Bellary scam and whose corrupt image had compelled the BJP to expel him as Karnataka state president in April 2016. 
• Modi as a prime ministerial candidate talked of bringing lakhs of crores of black money deposited in offshore bank accounts back to India. On his watch as prime minister, Vijay Mallya fled the country.
• The list of Modi’s wrongdoings runs long. His omissions and commissions in the Gujarat pogrom and the subsequent subversion of criminal justice system are shocking to the conscience of a reasonable person and a “kalank” for us as a nation. His silence over episodes like the Dadri lynching is as troubling as Singh’s silence as prime minister. Though perhaps he will never to have to face an inquiry into the alleged Sahara-Birla payoffs.
• The persecution of political opponents at the hands of police agencies, the harassment of civil rights activists and the systematic chipping away of institutional integrity and autonomy have surpassed the record of Congress regimes of the past. 
• If Singh was an accidental prime minister, notebandi has shown that Modi is an arbitrary prime minister. 
• Manmohan Singh has never had to face criminal prosecution for any of his actions or omissions. Modi too so far has staved off a criminal prosecution. The prime minister who ran the most corrupt central government in independent India’s history ironically remained for ten long years in public imagination as Mr Clean. It was only towards the end of his stint that his sheen wore off and he became a figure of ridicule and revulsion. 
• The present prime minister, who is running one of the most duplicitous, insensitive and arbitrary governments since independence, is similarly projecting himself as an honest man. It remains to be seen how history will judge Modi, but so far, he has managed to reap a rich political harvest from all the wrongdoings of his government and his party, without one charge sticking to him. 
• This may be attributed to the inadequacy of our legal system that has always failed to hold the powerful to account, or to the artful device of “raincoat in the bath” as Modi himself has put it. Though their styles contrast – one professorial, the other a relentless demagogue – both Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi have made a fine art of donning the raincoat.

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On Modi's Watch, 20,000 Crores Vanished. The Big "Gas Scam"

The above list of misdeeds of Modi is neither exhaustive nor conclusive. 

1. In his book 'Karmayogi' Modi swears by caste order ‘Scavenging a spiritual experience for Valmiks’ which stirred controversy that compelled to withdraw all 5,000 copies published by his 'manasaputri' GSPC. 
2. In Aug 2017, ONGC has completed the Rs 7,738 crore acquisition of 80% stake in debt ridden GSPC's KG basin gas block for which GSPC had spent over Rs.20,000 crores, borrowed from 15 PSU banks, in the past 10 years and failed to discover any gas. A month before, Oil ministry raised flag over danger in government nudging ONGC to make sub optimal investments in GSPC that doesn't make business sense to them. ONGC doesn't have technical capability to complete the exploratory phase of drilling, as on date. It needs to invest lot more money to complete drilling and bring the gas field into production.
3. No sooner Modi became PM, Mayaben Kodnani was granted bail on health grounds. The Naroda Patiya convict Babu Bajrangi was granted bail 14 times, so far who is said to have lost his eyesight, mostly on the ground of his own and his wife’s health.

Needless to say that LK Advani and AB Vajpayee did greatest disservice to the nation by promoting non grata Modi as Gujarat CM and protecting him in 2002 riots that enabled him to become PM a decade later. Gujarat in particular and India in general stands destroyed.

Unintended consequences

The law of unintended consequences, often cited but rarely defined, is that actions of people, and especially of government, always have effects that are unanticipated or unintended. Unintended consequences are outcomes that are not the ones foreseen and intended by a purposeful action. They could be beneficial, drawbacks and perverse results.

The first and most complete analysis of the concept of unintended consequences was done in 1936 by the American sociologist Robert K. Merton. He identified five sources of unanticipated consequences. Ignorance, error, imperious immediacy of interest, basic values requiring prohibit certain actions and self-defeating prediction or the self-fulfilling prophecy.

In medicine, most drugs have unintended consequences, or side effects, associated with their use. However, some are beneficial. For instance, Aspirin, a pain reliever, is also an anticoagulant that can help prevent heart attacks and reduce the severity and damage from thrombotic strokes. Famously, the drug Viagra was developed to lower blood pressure, with its main current use being discovered as a side effect in clinical trials.

The law of unintended consequences is at work always and everywhere. The law of unintended consequences provides the basis for many criticisms of government programs. As the critics see it, unintended consequences can add so much to the costs of some programs that they make the programs unwise even if they achieve their stated goals. A policy that protects one industry from foreign competition makes it harder for another industry to compete with imports.

If cars, trucks and buses start driving themselves, people who earn their living from driving these vehicles will suddenly find themselves out of a job. Loss of driver jobs in USA alone would be 4 million - which is more than jobs lost during 2008 Great Recession. Account for all the supervisory, management and support staff for these driving jobs and that number could double. Many of these workers are classified as low-skilled workers and it will be difficult for such unemployed workers to quickly find new work, and the cost of re-training them could be high. Another interesting consequence is that after a few generations, very few people will even know how to drive a car anymore.

An example of unintended consequence: Social Security has helped alleviate poverty among senior citizens. It has carried a cost that goes beyond the payroll taxes levied on workers and employers. Today’s workers save less for their old age because they know they will receive Social Security checks when they retire. It means that less savings are available, less investment takes place, and the economy and wages grow more slowly than they would without Social Security.

An unintended consequence of China eradicating sparrows costed 20 million lives in late 1950's: During the late 50s and early 60s, communist China's Mao Zedong undertook a benign ecological program to kill sparrows which ate the grain of the peasants. Mao knew nothing about animals. He didn't want to discuss his plan or listen to experts. He just decided that the 'four pests' should be killed. The masses of China were mobilized to eradicate the birds that resulted in the near-extinction of the sparrows in China. By killing sparrows, they eliminated the primary enemy predator of the locust. Without any natural predator the locust thrived. Grain production in most rural areas collapsed and a massive famine began. The resulting massive famine in China killed an estimated 20 million people. 

Politics is tricky; it cuts both ways. Every time you 

make a choice, it has unintended consequences 

Without reflection, we go blindly on our way, creating more 

unintended consequences, and failing to achieve anything useful

The worst unintended consequences are being faced by Indians consequent to senseless demonetization by Modi during Nov 2016. He did it just Mao's way - a quack advised & secretly planned in a most undemocratic and autocratic way surprising the whole world. The consequences are enormous including loss of lives of over 100 people. The brunt was borne by poorest, as usual. Read the opinions. While achieving none of its stated objectives, unintended consequences are growth slowed, informal economy brought to stand still, millions lost livelihoods, agriculture destroyed, banking sector ruined and so on. It was aptly described as most naive, least thought through policy decisions ever and a massive man-made disaster. Steve Forbes described it as "India's government perpetrated an unprecedented act of demonetization, that is not only damaging its economy and threatening destitution to countless millions of its already poor citizens but also breathtaking in its immorality...What India has done is commit a massive theft of people's property without even the pretense of due process, a shocking move for a democratically elected government." A vicious cycle has been set into motion by Modi and unpredictable problems and unintended consequences are bound to surface incessantly. It may take few years to come back to pre-Nov 2016 levels of economy. However Modi preferred keep Indians in denial by not answering Parliament, fudging economy's data, and publicizing its failure as successful and is the beginning of relentless fight against corruption. Ironically, Modi too is corrupt in many different ways, but much less compared to Congress and his Gujarat CM days were knows as Mr. 3%. His stature doesn't august well in the company of Adani's & Ambani's as well.