Mockery of Exit Polls

Almost all exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Some pollsters such as News24-Today’s Chanakya and Aaj Tak-AxisMyIndia predicted the BJP’s win to be bigger than even the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Only ABP-Nielsen has predicted the BJP to fall short of majority.

Stock market operators are paying TV channels to produce exit polls that will move the market in the days between the exit polls and the actual results and then move the market rapidly in a different direction once results are out. So whatever the exit polls say take them with a pinch of salt - people have advised.

Within 60 seconds, Rs 3.2 lakh crore were added to investor kitty as exit polls see NDA win. The highly exaggerated Exit Polls have become another tool to make money and the rich are getting richer at the expense of the gullible small investors.

ABP giving 56 seats to MGB in UP, India today giving 65 seats to BJP in UP. This is the conclusion of Exit polls!

The BJP-JDU alliance is set to sweep the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar winning minimum 38 out of the 40 seats, according to the India Today-My Axis India Exit Poll. The RJD-Congress led 'Mahagathbandhan' may only bag maximum 2 seats, as per the exit polls. Is it believable?

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has made a stunning allegation against TV channels’ who broadcast their exit poll predictions on Sunday evening. She said that predictions favouring the BJP was a part of a larger ‘game plan’ to ‘manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip.’

Telegu Desam Party chief N Chandrababu Naidu dismissed the predictions of the exit polls, pointing out that past experience show such analysis usually turn out wrong. "Time and again exit polls have failed to catch the people's pulse. Exit polls have provIndia ed to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances..." Mr Naidu tweeted.

Last week, Arnab Goswami had slammed his rival TV channels particularly India Today for ‘leaking’ their exit poll data that gave the NDA only 177 seats, a loss of 177 seats compared to 2014, they claimed. Faced with widespread condemnation, India Today had later clarified that numbers flashed on its channel were part of the channel’s dummy data.

"I believe the exit polls are all wrong. In Australia last weekend, 56 different exit polls proved wrong. In India many people don't tell pollsters the truth fearing they might be from the Government. Will wait till 23rd for the real results," tweeted the Congress parliamentarian Mr Shashi Tharoor. He was referring to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison winning what was seen as an unwinnable election, cementing his authority over the Liberal Party and giving him the muscle to end a decade of instability that has seen a revolving door of prime ministers.

National Conference chief Omar Abdullah tweeted "Every single exit poll can’t be wrong! Time to switch off the TV, log out of social media & wait to see if the world is still spinning on its axis on the 23rd". His tweet that did not outright cast doubts on the exit polls that is likely to be seen as a harbinger of the actual results.

Basis Exit Polls, shares of Adani Group companies have shot through the roof:
    Adani Green Energy: 17%
    Adani Gas: 16%  
    Adani Power: 14%
    Adani Transmission: 9% 
    Adani Ports & SEZ: 8%
    Adani Enterprises: 15%

There is no advantage of conducting Exit Polls!  It creates unwanted anxiety to people and politicians. Only TV channels make money.


Many political analysts see opinion polls as an evil in democracy. Opinion polls have bandwagon effect on the fair election process. Opinion polls project what voters are thinking and what their mandate will be. It doesn't direct the voters to go for the majority view or to neglect the minority. Opinion polls are accused of being manipulated and sometimes being wrong. Opinion polls can be manipulated by arranging favorable questions. It is not the duty of the media to keep the moral of the party cadres high. Media is accountable to the people not to the political parties. Indian citizen has the right to freedom of speech and expression and ban on the opinion polls will curtail this right. So argument against opinion polls holds no moral ground. In a country like ours, opinion polls and exit polls are much needed to enrich our healthy democracy. But yesterday's exit polls seems to have been manipulated by ruling BJP in order to keep UPA and allies in disarray so that in case of any marginal opportunity they could knock away the chance to form government with the help of President Kovind.

Jammu & Kashmir: Instrument of Accession & Article 370

Jammu and Kashmir had a 77% Muslim population in 1947 and many people in Pakistan expected that Kashmir would join Pakistan. But J&K National Conference was secular and was allied with the Congress since the 1930s. So India too had expectations that Kashmir would join India. The Maharaja Hari Singh was faced with indecision. On Oct 22, 1947, rebellious citizens from the western districts of the State and Pushtoon tribesmen from the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan invaded the State, backed by Pakistan. The Maharaja initially fought back but appealed for assistance to the India, who agreed on the condition that the ruler accede to India. Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession on Oct 26, 1947 in return for military aid and assistance, which was accepted by the Governor General the next day with a gratuitous condition that after peace returned to the state, the people’s wish would be ascertained on the issue of accession. This was just a wish in view of the belated accession, not a precondition for accession.

• Maharaja Hari Singh sought urgent military aid on Oct 24, 1947, the cabinet had refused to send troops unless the Maharaja acceded. This was the idea of Governor-General Mountbatten, who chaired the Defence Committee of the Cabinet.
• At the Cabinet meeting on Oct 26, 1947, Nehru insisted that the accession must have the people’s backing. So, Sheikh Adbullah sent in a quickly scribbled note on behalf of the National Conference. He was sitting in the next room, having brought his family down to Delhi.
  Sheikh Abdullah was an Indian politician who played a central role in the politics of Jammu and Kashmir. The self-styled "Sher-e-Kashmir" (Lion of Kashmir), Abdullah was the founding leader of the National Conference. He agitated against the rule of the Maharaja Hari Singh and urged self-rule for Kashmir.
• On the morning of Oct 27, 1947, Dakotas flew the Sikh regiment to Srinagar. The place was in limbo, the Maharaja having left Srinagar for Jammu in a long convoy at 2 am on the night of Oct 25,1947, a few hours after signing the Instrument of Accession (IoA).
• The Instruments of Accession were cyclostyled documents — the one signed by Raja Hari Singh was no different from the one signed by other princes. So the document executed by Raja Hari Singh was just another Instrument of Accession with no special concessions or reservations.
• The dramatic events of that day have left a legacy of divergent narratives. Each seems unreasonable to the other. That of course is a recipe for deadlock and increased resentment. A common impression among many Kashmiris is that the army’s arrival on this day that year was a temporary measure, meant only to save Kashmiris from the tribesmen.
• The real differences are that this one was conditional (only for defence, external relations and communication), and this Maharaja did not follow up with an instrument of merger. That means that the state of Jammu and Kashmir continues to have a legal standing. 
  On the eve of India and Pakistan becoming separate dominions, rajas and maharajas of British India were given three options: become part of India, become a part of Pakistan or remain independent states. Within the specified period — between August 15 and October 6, 1947 — 560-plus erstwhile rulers signed documents with the title “Instrument of Accession”, and thereby agreed to become part of the dominion of India. This was to be followed by instruments of merger, thereby becoming part of India and ending the original identity of the princely state — many princes executed both the documents one after the other, while some had hesitation to sign the merger treaty.
• The merger of J&K with India should have taken place before October end. But Nehru's complaint to the UNO and its intervention, prevented it. The merger had to be postponed until the dispute was settled — and that dispute is still pending.
• At the insistence of Nehru, Article 370, according special status to J&K, was added at the fag end of the deliberations of the Constituent Assembly. While B.R. Ambedkar opposed the idea and refused to take part in drafting Article 370, the other members of the Constituent Assembly condescended to this “gift from Nehru to his friend Sheikh Abdullah” in the firm belief that this was a temporary measure.
• Regarding Article 370, most Kashmiris insist that 370 is a permanent part of India’s constitution, the hinge upon which the state’s relationship with the Union is based.
• The Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir establishes the framework of government at state level in Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. The present constitution was adopted on Nov 17, 1956, and came into effect on Jan 26, 1957. 
• The state’s constitution clearly states that it is an integral part of India. Union Home Minister GB Pant used that term for the first time in Parliament in 1958, soon after the state’s constitution took effect on 26 January that year. Once the state’s constitution was in place, it dictated how much control the Union would have.
• Sheikh Abdullah was the Prime Minister of the state of Jammu and Kashmir after its accession to India in 1947 and was later jailed and exiled. He was dismissed from the position of Prime Ministership on Aug 8, 1953 and Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad was appointed as the new Prime Minister. The expressions ‘Sadar-i-Riyasat’ and ‘Prime Minister’ were replaced with the terms ‘Governor’ and ‘Chief Minister’ in 1965. Sheikh Abdullah again became the Chief Minister of the state following the 1974 Indira-Sheikh accord.
• RSS activists tend to confuse it with Jana Sangh founder Syama Prasad Mookerji’s ek nishan, ek vidhan, ek pradhan campaign of 1952-53. Mookerji’s campaign was specifically against the New Delhi agreement of 1952, negotiated by committees headed by Maulana Azad on behalf of the Union and Sheikh Abdullah on behalf of the state. And that agreement was in the same bracket as Article 370. It was meant to determine this particularly prickly Centre-state relationship until the state’s constitution was ready.
  Jana Sangh founder Syama Prasad Mookerji was Nehru's cabinet minister which finalized Article 370.
• As long as the fundamental difference in perspective exits, one can go round and round in circles arguing about each of the above points whether one wants to interpret all that happened as meant to pave the way for Kashmir’s inclusion in India, or as meant to open doors that might lead to its independence is a matter of time.

J&K part of India ... Dr. Karan Singh

The state had acceded to India and not merged with it and that it why it has its 
own separate constitution and special status ... Dr. Karan Singh S/o Maharaja Hari Singh

Long after Modi government is a distant memory, either J&K won’t be part of India 

or Article 370 will still exist ... Omar Abdullah, ex CM, J&K 

(Even though it is height of ignorance & audacity, undercurrents are real)

Today Kashmir valley has over 96% Muslims. Post 1947 events have diluted the natural order of Kashmir becoming part of Pakistan mainly due to its incursions. Even Muslim people of Kashmir valley face dilemma - while they feel alienated and want to secede from India, they are not sure to get better treatment in Pakistan and being a land locked hill state with population of less than 10 million can't survive as an independent nation. In the meantime, Kashimris are suffering with militancy and terrorism and is deprived of development which the whole world is enjoying. What India should do is to try to win the co-operation of the Kashmiri people and politicians and MPs from the rest of India to suitably amend and attenuate Article 370 instead of repealing it. Hopefully, Kashmiri people would forgot Article 370 with political engagement and development, in due course of time.