Mockery of Exit Polls

Almost all exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Some pollsters such as News24-Today’s Chanakya and Aaj Tak-AxisMyIndia predicted the BJP’s win to be bigger than even the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Only ABP-Nielsen has predicted the BJP to fall short of majority.

Stock market operators are paying TV channels to produce exit polls that will move the market in the days between the exit polls and the actual results and then move the market rapidly in a different direction once results are out. So whatever the exit polls say take them with a pinch of salt - people have advised.

Within 60 seconds, Rs 3.2 lakh crore were added to investor kitty as exit polls see NDA win. The highly exaggerated Exit Polls have become another tool to make money and the rich are getting richer at the expense of the gullible small investors.

ABP giving 56 seats to MGB in UP, India today giving 65 seats to BJP in UP. This is the conclusion of Exit polls!

The BJP-JDU alliance is set to sweep the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar winning minimum 38 out of the 40 seats, according to the India Today-My Axis India Exit Poll. The RJD-Congress led 'Mahagathbandhan' may only bag maximum 2 seats, as per the exit polls. Is it believable?

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has made a stunning allegation against TV channels’ who broadcast their exit poll predictions on Sunday evening. She said that predictions favouring the BJP was a part of a larger ‘game plan’ to ‘manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip.’

Telegu Desam Party chief N Chandrababu Naidu dismissed the predictions of the exit polls, pointing out that past experience show such analysis usually turn out wrong. "Time and again exit polls have failed to catch the people's pulse. Exit polls have provIndia ed to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances..." Mr Naidu tweeted.

Last week, Arnab Goswami had slammed his rival TV channels particularly India Today for ‘leaking’ their exit poll data that gave the NDA only 177 seats, a loss of 177 seats compared to 2014, they claimed. Faced with widespread condemnation, India Today had later clarified that numbers flashed on its channel were part of the channel’s dummy data.

"I believe the exit polls are all wrong. In Australia last weekend, 56 different exit polls proved wrong. In India many people don't tell pollsters the truth fearing they might be from the Government. Will wait till 23rd for the real results," tweeted the Congress parliamentarian Mr Shashi Tharoor. He was referring to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison winning what was seen as an unwinnable election, cementing his authority over the Liberal Party and giving him the muscle to end a decade of instability that has seen a revolving door of prime ministers.

National Conference chief Omar Abdullah tweeted "Every single exit poll can’t be wrong! Time to switch off the TV, log out of social media & wait to see if the world is still spinning on its axis on the 23rd". His tweet that did not outright cast doubts on the exit polls that is likely to be seen as a harbinger of the actual results.

Basis Exit Polls, shares of Adani Group companies have shot through the roof:
    Adani Green Energy: 17%
    Adani Gas: 16%  
    Adani Power: 14%
    Adani Transmission: 9% 
    Adani Ports & SEZ: 8%
    Adani Enterprises: 15%

There is no advantage of conducting Exit Polls!  It creates unwanted anxiety to people and politicians. Only TV channels make money.


Many political analysts see opinion polls as an evil in democracy. Opinion polls have bandwagon effect on the fair election process. Opinion polls project what voters are thinking and what their mandate will be. It doesn't direct the voters to go for the majority view or to neglect the minority. Opinion polls are accused of being manipulated and sometimes being wrong. Opinion polls can be manipulated by arranging favorable questions. It is not the duty of the media to keep the moral of the party cadres high. Media is accountable to the people not to the political parties. Indian citizen has the right to freedom of speech and expression and ban on the opinion polls will curtail this right. So argument against opinion polls holds no moral ground. In a country like ours, opinion polls and exit polls are much needed to enrich our healthy democracy. But yesterday's exit polls seems to have been manipulated by ruling BJP in order to keep UPA and allies in disarray so that in case of any marginal opportunity they could knock away the chance to form government with the help of President Kovind.

Looming coal shortage

Coal meets almost half the energy needs of the entire world. It plays a vital role in steel production and the manufacturing of cement. Coal takes thousands of years to form naturally and are not replaceable at the pace they are consumed. Global coal output is likely to reach a plateau by 2025 and thereafter, it is likely to be on a permanent decline, marking the ‘beginning of end’ of the resource. Depletion of conventional energy resources has made conservation of energy and the identification of new and/or renewable energy sources vital.

THE GLOBAL SCENARIO OF COAL

• Increase in price due to growing gap between demand and supply of coal.
• Dependency on other fuels for the generation of electricity. 
• Many established thermal power generation capacities would face the threat of sitting idle and being underutilized in absence of coal.
• All sectors will have to grapple with increasing power cuts or blackouts, leading to shut downs that would impact their production and margins. 
• A coal shortage can have a ripple effect across industries, which will ultimately reflect in the growth rate of economies.
• In India, thermal power accounts for about 65% of the total electricity generated. India is third-largest producer of coal globally, and yet, is also the fourth-largest importer of coal. India imports 30% of its coal needs of which half by power companies.
• Thermal power plants accounts for 88% of water consumed by all industry sectors put together. They also add to the environmental and social burdens. 
• Coal India Limited, the largest coal producer in the world, has not supplied coal as per commitments to power stations and the gap is widening. Much of the coal produced in the country is of a relatively inferior grade. 
• New laws by exporting countries such as Indonesia and Australia increases the cost of the imported coal for India. As power producers are unable to entirely pass on the costs to the consumers, they face increased pressures on their margins.
• In the light of all this, it is prudent to not rely on any nonrenewable resources including coal. Instead, industries and countries should concentrate on increasing productivity and efficiency of the existing technologies. This will also bring down energy costs with minimal interference in processes. 

LOOMING COAL SHORTAGE

• A surge in electricity demand growth and poor coal production by Coal India threaten to accentuate the fuel crisis. At a time when coal prices are on fire in the overseas market and imported fuel-based gencos are idling, Coal India’s production has set alarm bells jangling. The coal production situation might snowball into a crisis.
• An unexpected rise in demand for thermal power triggered a fuel crisis in July 2017. It was initially attributed to a fall in hydel supplies and stronger growth in demand on the back of the rural electrification push.
• The demand surge caught CIL off-guard. The company was in the process of cutting down production due to sluggish demand for almost two years. Excessive production over the previous two years, when demand was flat, had led to a multi-year-high pit-head stock of 68mt. CIL deployed its pit-head stock to cater to the demand, using the improved railway logistics.
• By end of Dec 2017, supplies started easing out, though stocks at power plants were lower than last year.
• Coal production grew 2.6%, 0.7% and 1.3% in Nov, Dec and Jan respectively, taking the 10-month average to 1.6%. CCL and BCCL, reported 11-13% decline in production.
• At the current monthly average of 53 mt, annual production may only touch 550mt against target of 600mt. With pitheads stocks bottoming out to 33mt, CIL cannot push off-take further without matching production growth.
• Meanwhile, electricity demand grew 5.8% in July, up from 2.6% in FY17 and 4.3% in FY16, with UP, MP, Maharashtra, Telengana and Gujarat being major buyers.
• The result is showing in low fuel stock at power plants. As on Feb 1, 2018,  the average inventory at power plants was 9 day's equivalent against desirable 21 day's.

Read the source article

Read ... Why we must quit coal

Telangana state (TS) has shortage of 2,000 MW at the time of 'AP Re-organisation' in June 2014. Although some thermal generation has been added in the last 4 years, the increased demand due in Hyderabad city, new lift irrigation schemes, tap water to every household and supplying of 24 hours power to all villages and all agriculture pump sets - the demand has gone up exponentially and is slated to touch 10,000 MW in a year or two. Last two years coal position was extremely good and overall demand for power was subdued and was favorable to TS for purchase power on spot basis at low prices. This year with increase in demand, shortages of coal and imported coal becoming very expensive TS might face not only shortages but also power expenses shooting up and that would be painful and politically disastrous for ruling TRS party. In any case dependence on Thermal power needs to be reduced by making investments in solar power, reduction in consumption by increasing efficiency and eliminating wastage.

ICC Women's World Cup final 2017: India throws away victory!

India's Final Match Score Card

Harmanpreet Kaur's batting highlights in world cup semi finals

• England defeated India by nine runs to win their fourth ICC Women’s World Cup 2017 title. Chasing a target of 229, India were well on course till the 42nd over but a dramatic collapse ended their hopes of a historic win. 
• England rode on Anya Shrubsole’s 6/46 to beat India by nine runs and clinch their victory. 
• India's Punam Raut scored 86 and Harmanpreet Kaur 51.
• Indian team's play during the tournament was aptly described as - they strove, they fought, they dominated, they struggled and then they lost.
• India's batting was well until 42nd over with score card at 191 and Punam Raut fell for 5th wicket. Still India had 8 overs, 5 wickets to score just 38 runs i.e. 4.75 per over and victory was reachable.
• Earlier India in semifinals, riding on the singular & scintillating batting of Harmanpreet Kaur's unbeaten knock of 171* off 115 balls with 20 fours & 7 sixes, defeated Australia by 36 runs to seal the spot in the final of the 2017 ICC Women's World Cup.
• India's defeat is mainly due to losing nerves by middle & lower order while top 4 bats-woman did reasonably well. They lost last 5 wickets before adding 23 runs only and losing the match meekly.
• Due credit to England team for maintaining their nerves cool and pressure on India team.
• A record 50 million people tuned in to watch this World Cup, an 80% increase from 2013.
• The intensity of this final has no close comparisons. Such was the manner in which both teams fought that it had everything. From dubious running, dropped catches, missed run-outs, debatable third-umpire calls to brilliantly set fields, sharp cricketing brains, smart bowling changes and game changing spells, this World Cup final was a highlights package right till the very last ball.
• For years, women cricketers had taken a backseat, were neglected and ignored. Their male counterparts were worshiped while the fans could barely blurt out a name or two from women's teams. All that has changed as the women took centre stage in the 2017 event in England. This tournament will be a springboard for women's cricket around the country, and around the world.
• Finally, it is India that lost the match resulting in England's lifting the World Cup.

What men can do women can do better.