Showing posts with label opinion polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label opinion polls. Show all posts

Monday, 20 May 2019

Mockery of Exit Polls

Almost all exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Some pollsters such as News24-Today’s Chanakya and Aaj Tak-AxisMyIndia predicted the BJP’s win to be bigger than even the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Only ABP-Nielsen has predicted the BJP to fall short of majority.
Stock market operators are paying TV channels to produce exit polls that will move the market in the days between the exit polls and the actual results and then move the market rapidly in a different direction once results are out. So whatever the exit polls say take them with a pinch of salt - people have advised.

Within 60 seconds, Rs 3.2 lakh crore were added to investor kitty as exit polls see NDA win. The highly exaggerated Exit Polls have become another tool to make money and the rich are getting richer at the expense of the gullible small investors.

ABP giving 56 seats to MGB in UP, India today giving 65 seats to BJP in UP. This is the conclusion of Exit polls!

The BJP-JDU alliance is set to sweep the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar winning minimum 38 out of the 40 seats, according to the India Today-My Axis India Exit Poll. The RJD-Congress led 'Mahagathbandhan' may only bag maximum 2 seats, as per the exit polls. Is it believable?

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has made a stunning allegation against TV channels’ who broadcast their exit poll predictions on Sunday evening. She said that predictions favouring the BJP was a part of a larger ‘game plan’ to ‘manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip.’

Telegu Desam Party chief N Chandrababu Naidu dismissed the predictions of the exit polls, pointing out that past experience show such analysis usually turn out wrong. "Time and again exit polls have failed to catch the people's pulse. Exit polls have provIndia ed to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances..." Mr Naidu tweeted.

Last week, Arnab Goswami had slammed his rival TV channels particularly India Today for ‘leaking’ their exit poll data that gave the NDA only 177 seats, a loss of 177 seats compared to 2014, they claimed. Faced with widespread condemnation, India Today had later clarified that numbers flashed on its channel were part of the channel’s dummy data.


"I believe the exit polls are all wrong. In Australia last weekend, 56 different exit polls proved wrong. In India many people don't tell pollsters the truth fearing they might be from the Government. Will wait till 23rd for the real results," tweeted the Congress parliamentarian Mr Shashi TharoorHe was referring to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison winning what was seen as an unwinnable election, cementing his authority over the Liberal Party and giving him the muscle to end a decade of instability that has seen a revolving door of prime ministers.

National Conference chief Omar Abdullah tweeted "Every single exit poll can’t be wrong! Time to switch off the TV, log out of social media & wait to see if the world is still spinning on its axis on the 23rd". His tweet that did not outright cast doubts on the exit polls that is likely to be seen as a harbinger of the actual results.


Basis Exit Polls, shares of Adani Group companies have shot through the roof:
    Adani Green Energy: 17%
    Adani Gas: 16%  
    Adani Power: 14%
    Adani Transmission: 9% 
    Adani Ports & SEZ: 8%
    Adani Enterprises: 15%

There is no advantage of conducting Exit Polls!  It creates unwanted anxiety to people and politicians. Only TV channels make money.


Many political analysts see opinion polls as an evil in democracy. Opinion polls have bandwagon effect on the fair election process. Opinion polls project what voters are thinking and what their mandate will be. It doesn't direct the voters to go for the majority view or to neglect the minority. Opinion polls are accused of being manipulated and sometimes being wrong. Opinion polls can be manipulated by arranging favorable questions. It is not the duty of the media to keep the moral of the party cadres high. Media is accountable to the people not to the political parties. Indian citizen has the right to freedom of speech and expression and ban on the opinion polls will curtail this right. So argument against opinion polls holds no moral ground. In a country like ours, opinion polls and exit polls are much needed to enrich our healthy democracy. But yesterday's exit polls seems to have been manipulated by ruling BJP in order to keep UPA and allies in disarray so that in case of any marginal opportunity they could knock away the chance to form government with the help of President Kovind.


Wednesday, 6 December 2017

Gujarat opinion polls: BJP & Congress equal with 43% share each

  
Deccan Chronicle Page 11 dated Dec 6, 2017

  • Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News survey in August pegged the BJP’s vote share at 59%. This was down to 43% by November last week. In August Congress had only 29% of the vote share. This has grown by 14 percentage points in the four months since, with the party now neck and neck with the BJP equaling at 43%.
  • The popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dipped from 82% in August to 64% in November. And Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has risen from 40% in August to 57% in the latest survey.
  • The dip in the BJP’s lead can be partly attributed to anger among traders. As per the survey, in October the BJP had a lead of 4 points among traders; however, the latest survey shows this has been nearly reversed, with the Congress now getting 43% votes among the trading community, as opposed to the BJP at 40%.
  • Till a month back, women were strongly backing the BJP 50% to 39% for the Congress. Now gap between the two parties is just two points with 44% favouring the BJP against 42% for the Congress.
  • This despite Modi addressing several rallies and meetings and camping by 40 central ministers and that many number of BJP MPs from other states at Ahmedabad. At Bhuj and Bharuch meetings addressed by Modi last week at least one fourth chairs were seen empty and many people walking away with Modi's lack luster speeches containing all bluffs. 
  • One more week to go to polls and many more rallies to be addressed by Modi with his bluffs will ensure BJP's defeat in similar lines with UP results but in victory in favour of Congress.
  • Modi will be paying bitter price for forgetting people who elected him and running hand in glove with west and capitalists and doing all reckless adventures with economy and inflicting sufferings to lower class people of India.
  • Today's high retail prices of all commodities, fruits and vegetables, lpg, petrol & diesel, most of which are due to Govt mismanaging economy will have its effect on polls & results.
  • Finally the results indicates non stop arrogant bluffs by Modi and admission of modest truths by Rahul Gandhi. Modi must understand that he can't fool all the people all the times.

If you don't learn lessons on your own, nature will will teach you lessons


Modi is leader with severe empathy deficit. He has no understanding about the struggles of poor people who doesn't have food security beyond few days and how his adventures destroys them. On other hand he believes in medieval class structure of Hinduism which is incompatible to present day's democratic principle of 'all men are equal'. He is unfit to rule our country.