Tuesday, 21 February 2017

UP Elections - Likely outcome

  • Hearing 'Modi, Modi' in and around, Muslims got divided between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP). The estimates are at least 70% Muslims in his voted for the SP and remaining BSP.
  • It's enough to make the SP candidate win, because the SP is getting some extra votes beyond M and Y, Muslim and Yadav.
  • Regarding Ram mandir to be built in Ayodhya, voters said they have heard this forever.
  • Ragrding the decisiveness with which demonetisation was announced overnight, has even more brought about a near consolidation among Hindus. About 65% Baniyas, upset with demonetisation, voted for the SP candidate as a negative vote for the BJP, to send a message to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
  • There are women and youth across caste and community lines who never cared to vote but voted this time for Akhilesh Yadav, to defeat BJP.
  • This election is difficult to read in the absence of a perceptible wave, or leher, the only way to understand voter behaviour is caste.
  • Not just journalists and psephologists, even politicians don't really know what's cooking inside the voting machines.
  • There will be many who will get it right, but by chance. Anyone who claims to be able to read this election is bluffing. Or may be it is just a bad reporter playing it safe.
My View:
BJP is lacking 'slogan' and CM face and burdened with demonetisation woes; Modi's war against corruption, black money, fake currency & terrorism financing proved to be a gimmick; his stoic silence about demonetisation benefits; absence of noticeable anti incumbancy vote against Akhilesh Yadav; Ram Mandir not generating any Hindu polarisation but polarising Muslims against itself; and caste grouping unfavourable to BJP; SP-Congress combine likely to add 6-9% votes etc leaves SP-Congress combine in a hopeful position to sail through the election with a simple majority similar to that of Jayalalitha AIADMK in Tamilnadu six moths ago. However voter behaviour and election outcomes are not easily predictable even to the psephologists.

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