Sunday, 28 May 2017

Illusions of recovery

  • The growth of China and India at 6.9% and 7.3% are unsustainable because of their dependence on debt.
  • G7 economies are growing at meager 1.8%.
  • US growth is distressing with personal consumption growth of 0.3%.
  • Indian banks with over 10% lending in stressed and non-performance assets, the growth rate is unsustainable.
  • China's total debt by record 237% of GDP far above emerging-market counterparts raising the risk of financial crisis or prolonged slowdown in growth.
  • While Trump promises fiscal stimulus, he does not have a concrete plan to ensure that this does not result in a substantial widening of the fiscal deficit. Then it is unlikely that Trump will win support of fiscal hawks in his own party. The result would be obstacles to implementation.
  • Europe is still in the throes of crisis or vulnerable and its leading economy Germany is slowing.
  • The dependence on debt makes boom in India and China unsustainable and when downturn occurs in these countries, deleveraging will accelerate the fall and make recovery even more difficult. So making these countries as growth poles is unwarranted.

My View:
Worldwide, middle class and lower classes [Over 95% of population] income remained stagnant during the past 25 years. Only upper middle class and upper classes incomes have shot through the roof. Middle & lower classes remaining stagnant and their consumption remaining low, how can the economy grow? The growth of China and India are superfluous without adjusting the impacts of debt burden, ecological destruction and pollution impact corrections. The growth of advanced countries like USA, Europe and Japan which are between 1-2% are real. During past one year our electricity consumption which hitherto recorded 6-8% compounded annual growth, has recorded negative growth of about 4% which is reflected in no load shedding, backing down of thermal generation & coal imports, piling up of coal stocks everywhere, reluctance of power buyers to sign long term PPA's in preference to spot cheaper purchases etc. How could India register economic growth of over 7% with reduced energy consumption? Every economic parameter is looking south while growth is looking north - strange. Fudging of economic data is not ruled out, which China did during the past 15 years. Indian, a asset rich and cash poor country, indicates asset value bubbling might burst anytime. But for the crude oil prices remaining low for consecutive three years, what would have happened to our economy with adventurists like Modi at helm.

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